This week, we mined more than 25,000 news articles (Open Source Intelligence - OSINT) for market signals with our machine intelligence ecosystem (more information).

Economy

US consumer prices surged in February, forcing Americans to dig deeper to pay for rent, food, and petrol, and inflation is poised to accelerate even further as Russia's war against Ukraine drives up the costs of crude oil and other commodities.

A 6.6 percent jump in gasoline prices accounted for a third of the monthly CPI increase, while overall food costs rose one percent and groceries rose 1.4 percent, the largest gains in both categories since April 2020.
The jobs-workers gap was 4.8 million, accounting for 2.9% of the labor force.
Prices at the pump are up about 24% over just the past month and 53% in the past year.

Markets

European indexes adding 2% A more hawkish than expected European Central Bank this week added to the sense policymakers will not be deterred by the uncertainty wrought by the war in Ukraine and will tighten. The euro recovered in line with the more buoyant mood on stocks and was last up 0.3% at $1.1025. The dollar index gave up early gains and was last unchanged on the day at 98.377, below a more than 1-1/2 year high of 99.418 hit on Monday.
Below are some of the growth stocks/companies to look for broken down by sentiment and centrality. Green stocks = positive, yellow = neutral (Centrality metric and network analysis explanations can be found at this link).

Risks

A Russian default on its debts after western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine is no longer improbable but would not trigger a global financial crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday. The IMF head expressed concern about the spillover effects from the war on the immediate neighbors of Russia and Ukraine because they have close trade relations with both countries and about the flow of Ukrainian refugees to Europe, the biggest refugee crisis since the second world war. Pimco Amassed Billions of Exposure to Russia Debt Facing Default. The fund disclosed that it had written almost $942 million of protection on Russia by the end of 2021. The other funds are holding positions include Pimco's Total Return bond fund, its Emerging Markets bond fund, and Low Duration income funds. It costs $5.8 million upfront and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million of Russia'sdebt for one year, according to ICE Data Services. Russia has $117 million worth of coupons due for payment on dollar bonds on March 16.

John Rich, executive chair of Ukraine'sleading food supplier MHP, said he feared for the vital spring planting season, which is critical not only for domestic supplies in Ukraine but also the huge quantities of grains and vegetable oil that the country around the globe."This conflict has had an enormous impact on Ukraine and Russia'sability to supply the world," Rich said. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that up to 30 percent of crop areas in Ukraine will either not be planted or be unharvested this year because of the conflict. The fallout from the war will be felt in three ways: disruption to current grain shipments, low or inaccessible future harvests in Ukraine and Russia, and withered production in other parts of the world. In normal times wheat and barley crops are harvested in the summer and exported in the autumn; by February, most ships are gone. Egypt usually buys 70 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. On March 8th and 9th, Russia and Ukraine banned wheat exports.

Japanese Encephalitis may affect global pork sales despite being found in Australia. The cases in Australia are thought to have emerged in piggeries after four states reported infections last month. Dr. Easton said: "For those who develop encephalitis as a result of a bite from a mosquito, nearly a third of those who contract encephalitis in that way will sadly die, and a third to 50 percent will be left with serious to life-changing consequences" Around 1 in every 250 people who become infected with Japanese Encephalitis develop more severe symptoms as the infection spreads to the brain.

In other news

According to Google Search Trends, searches for the VIX seem to be an early indicator for inquiries on inflation.
More people around the globe were wondering about "what is NATO" than "where is Ukraine" but seemed to be aware of Vladimir Putin (Google Search Trend Time-series below - data here).
OSINT and AI identified the power gaps within the EU in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. Fortunately, today's network looks very different due to EU cohesion against Russia, but it does show that the power gap was measurable and provided a seven-year lead time. Have a look at the Tweet for more details.

We hope you find the intelligence helpful. Please reach out to hello@bridgeci.co with questions or suggestions. Prior OSINT Drips are below.